Some important results of Forecast #6 are summarized below for 44 nations, 7 regions, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world. Two indicators are of special interest:
- the peak year of production for each nation, region, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world;
- "EUR Used": the ratio of Cumulative Oil Production (Q at end-2000) and Expected Ultimate Recovery (EUR) expressed in percent [%].
"Peak Year" means the historic or forecasted year of peak oil production.
"EUR Used" means the ratio of Q (at end-2000) to the EUR expressed as percent [%]. Briefly put: When "EUR Used" equals 100%, then oil production stops -- forever.
| ***** REGION I: NORTH AMERICA ***** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| USA |
1970 |
79.3 |
1st nation to peak |
| Canada |
2006 |
48.1 |
|
| Mexico |
2005 |
46.7 |
|
| N AMERICA |
1984 |
69.1% |
1st region to peak |
| ***** REGION II: SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA ****** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| Argentina |
1997 |
62.7 |
|
| Brazil |
2008 |
23.1 |
|
| Colombia |
1998 |
47.7 |
|
| Ecuador |
2006 |
43.9 |
|
| Peru |
1979 |
76.6 |
|
| Trinidad |
1977 |
71.5 |
|
| Venezuela |
1970 |
51.6 |
2nd OPEC nation to peak |
| S&C AMERICA |
2008 |
48.2% |
|
| ****** REGION III: EUROPE ****** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| Denmark |
2000 |
29.2 |
|
| Italy |
1997 |
55.3 |
|
| Norway |
2003 |
44.8 |
|
| Romania |
1976 |
75.6 |
|
| UK |
1998 |
58.9 |
2nd peak came from tax breaks |
| EUROPE |
1999 |
52.9% |
3rd region to peak |
| ***** REGION IV: FORMER SOVIET UNION (FSU) ***** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| FSU |
1987 |
60.4% |
2nd region to peak |
| ****** REGION V: MIDDLE EAST ***** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| Iran |
1976 |
44.6 |
3rd OPEC nation to peak |
| Iraq |
2036 |
24.8 |
OPEC |
| Kuwait |
2035 |
30.9 |
OPEC |
| Oman |
2005 |
43.5 |
|
| Qatar |
2008 |
35.8 |
OPEC |
| Saudi Arabia |
2019 |
29.1 |
OPEC |
| Syria |
1995 |
48.8 |
|
| UAE |
2026 |
21.2 |
OPEC |
| Yemen |
2006 |
18.2 |
|
| MIDDLE EAST |
2020 |
30.5% |
Has 2% of world's population |
| ****** REGION VI: AFRICA ***** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| Algeria |
2006 |
48.6 |
OPEC |
| Angola |
1999 |
38.7 |
|
| Cameroon |
1985 |
61.1 |
|
| Congo |
1999 |
35.5 |
|
| Egypt |
1993 |
63.3 |
|
| Gabon |
1996 |
47.7 |
|
| Libya |
1969 |
43.2 |
1st OPEC nation to peak |
| Nigeria |
2007 |
44.7 |
OPEC; "anarchy, filth, and brutality..." |
| Tunisia |
1983 |
63.8 |
|
| Eq. Guinea |
2005 |
14.5 |
|
| AFRICA |
2006 |
46.1% |
|
| ***** ASIA PACIFIC ***** |
| Nation |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| Australia |
2000 |
50.2 |
|
| Brunei |
1979 |
63.6 |
|
| China |
2012 |
40.0 |
1.3 billion people |
| India |
1997/2006
(tie) |
44.4 |
1.1 billion people |
| Indonesia |
1977 |
69.4 |
4th OPEC nation to peak |
| Malaysia |
2006 |
42.6 |
|
| P N Guinea |
1993 |
39.2 |
|
| Vietnam |
2005 |
22.8 |
|
| Thailand |
2006 |
25.9 |
|
| ASIA PACIFIC |
2010 |
47.8% |
Has 60% of world's population |
| ***** WORLD ***** |
| Category |
Peak
Year |
EUR
Used [%] |
Comments |
| OPEC |
2017 |
35.3% |
72% of world oil exports in 2000 |
| Non-OPEC |
2003 |
58.7% |
|
| WORLD |
2005 |
46.5% |
|
|
DISCUSSION
- 23 out of 44 nations are past-peak; 24 if you count India (i.e., 1997 & 2006 are tied).
-
A few nations that I count as "past-peak" could - in fact - establish new peaks in the future. Time will tell.
-
In contrast to Item 2, a few nations that are NOT counted as "past-peak", could - in fact - already be past-peak. Example: I forecast that Kuwait's peak will occur in 2035, however its actual peak may turn out to be 1971 when it produced 1.1 billion barrels compared to a mere 0.8 billion barrels in 2000. Thus Kuwait would have to increase its 2000 level of production by a whopping 37% to establish a new and higher peak. This may never happen.
-
3 out of 7 regions are past-peak, and by 2010 all regions except the Middle East will be past-peak.
-
In World Oil Forecast #1 (done in 1996 and presented at Princeton University) I forecasted that the European peak would occur in 2000. Too optimistic! It actually occurred in 1999.
-
The CAI method calls for one complete new oil forecast each year for each nation, region, and the world. In this series of forecasts, each production peak is tracked by a "phase diagram" (i.e., a graphical technique, not shown here). For example: In Forecast #1 (done in 1996) through Forecast #6 (done
in 2001), I have predicted the world oil production peak six times as follows: once at year 2007, twice at 2006, and three times at 2005 (including this Forecast #6, summarized above). Thus the annual series of world oil forecasts is converging on the year 2005. That's my best forecast at this time.
CONCLUSION
Industrial Civilization (IC), as it were, is now staggering at the brink of a sheer cliff so that a strong gust of ill wind (e.g., depression spook (many intuit what's happening), collapse of the Sumo Giant (Japan), the dot.com disease, resource and ethnic wars (e.g., Middle East, Macedonia, ad infinitum), boatloads of refugees, etc.) could topple the global IC at any time.
Rich Duncan
8-30-01
|